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China's energy security issues sounded in alarm in 2013
**Abstract**
Whether it's the struggling photovoltaic industry at the bottom of a long downturn, wind power that is catching up with solar energy, or nuclear power being cautiously restarted and shale gas undergoing active bidding, 2012 was a year that will be remembered for its challenges and transformations. In 2013, China’s reliance on foreign oil is expected to surpass 60%, a number that has raised serious concerns about the country’s energy security. If the nation does not accelerate the shift away from traditional non-renewable sources like oil and coal, maintaining economic and social development in the future may become increasingly difficult.
Looking at domestic demand for photovoltaics, the past decade has seen 2012 as a particularly tough year. In September 2012, the EU ignored Germany’s mediation and continued its "double anti-dumping" measures against Chinese PV products. In response, China launched a "double reversal" investigation into EU solar-grade polysilicon, leading to a trade war. However, these actions did little to open the EU market, and domestic PV companies, already struggling, faced even greater difficulties. According to Wang Bohua of the Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, China's PV exports in 2012 dropped by 40% to around 13 billion yuan. Many small and medium-sized manufacturers had to halt production, while others reduced output significantly.
Despite the challenges, the 2012 trade war acted as a catalyst for policy changes in 2013. The Ministry of Commerce, National Energy Administration, and 36 banks came together to support the industry, adopting a strategy of "supporting big and abandoning small." This signaled a new phase of government and bank intervention. As the EU’s rulings ended in mid-2013, the industry entered another downturn, making the domestic market more critical than ever.
To stimulate demand, the government introduced policies such as free access for distributed photovoltaics, grid companies canceling charges for solar generation, and promoting solar buildings and rural applications. The revised "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development" set targets of 21 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2015. Provinces like Jiangsu and Shanxi also launched their own plans, aiming to boost both large-scale and distributed solar projects.
While 2013 was a challenging time for the PV industry, it could also be a turning point for those who weathered the storm. It might mark the beginning of a new era for resilient companies.
Wind power, often referred to as the "troubled sibling" of solar energy, faced similar struggles in 2012. Despite being the world’s largest wind power producer, with over 60 million kilowatts of installed capacity, China still suffered from significant wind curtailment—over 10 billion kWh in 2011. This waste was due to overproduction, grid monopolies, and technical limitations. Experts pointed out that the lack of coordinated policies and an unfair compensation system for thermal power were major issues. While the government aimed to improve regulations and promote full purchase of wind power, the road to recovery remained uncertain.
In 2013, wind power faced a crucial test. With global economic conditions still fragile, the industry needed to find new markets and overcome technological barriers. The coming year would determine whether wind power could avoid the fate of photovoltaics.
Meanwhile, nuclear power and shale gas took different but important steps forward in 2012. After a pause following the Fukushima disaster, China officially resumed nuclear construction, with new policies and technological breakthroughs. The fast reactor project marked a key milestone in China’s three-step nuclear development plan. Although no inland nuclear projects were planned during the Twelfth Five-Year Period, discussions about their future continued.
Shale gas also gained momentum, with the government announcing subsidies and launching competitive bidding rounds. However, experts warned that China could not simply copy the U.S. model. Given its unique geological conditions, the development of shale gas would require careful planning and innovation.
As 2013 approached, all these sectors stood at a crossroads. The coming year would shape the future of China’s energy landscape, determining which industries would thrive and which would struggle.