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India re-enter the PV anti-dumping stick to China
On the 28th, the Ministry of Commerce website reported that recently, the Indian Anti-Dumping Authority announced it would initiate anti-dumping investigations into solar cells imported from mainland China, Chinese Taipei, Malaysia, and the U.S., following an application from the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association. According to our understanding, the trade volume of China's photovoltaic module exports to India in 2011 was approximately 1.6 billion yuan, which contrasts sharply with the over 20 billion USD (around 130 billion yuan) exported to Europe. This suggests that even if India implements anti-dumping measures against Chinese PV firms, the negative impact on China's PV product exports might be significantly less severe than what was experienced in Europe. Nevertheless, some industry experts argue that amid the global PV industry's current challenges, the anti-dumping "domino effect" could ripple through emerging markets in Asia, potentially undermining years of effort by Chinese companies to expand in these regions. This squeeze on global market space for Chinese companies cannot be overlooked.
The Indian Anti-Dumping Authority formally accepted the application from the Indian industry on September 12 to investigate anti-dumping practices on solar modules or parts exported from Malaysia, China, Chinese Taipei, and the U.S. After three months, the government approved the application. Market analysis indicates that PV module exports to India in 2011 amounted to 346 MW. Using the latest international polysilicon cell price of 4.6 yuan/W as a rough estimate, last year’s PV module exports to India were valued at around 1.6 billion yuan, which is far lower than the exports to Europe. Additionally, India’s total PV module installation capacity for 2011 was 480 MW, representing only 2% of the global total. Despite this relatively small scale, data shows that 62% (or 346 MW) of India’s 2011 PV installations were sourced from China. Industry sources report that leading Chinese exporters like Suntech Power, Artes, and Zhongdian PV account for over a third of the total. A brokerage analyst noted that China's top companies have become pivotal players in the Indian market. Should India impose anti-dumping duties, these companies' hard-won dominance in India could be rapidly undone. Thus, the potential impact of India's anti-dumping actions must not be underestimated.
Emerging markets, once seen as promising opportunities, now face mounting resistance. These analysts believe that due to the uncertainties in European and American markets, domestic PV companies have been redirecting their focus toward emerging markets like Asia and South America for alternative export channels. "If India's anti-dumping measures against China materialize, this domino effect might spread across other emerging market nations, dealing a significant blow to Chinese PV companies' recent efforts," the analyst stated.
Since last year, emerging markets in Asia and South America have shown immense potential, driven by supportive national policies. Last year, the total installed capacity of photovoltaics in Asian emerging markets, led by Japan, India, and Australia, surpassed 2,000 megawatts, accounting for almost 10% of the global market, indicating rapid growth. In Q4 of last year, India's PV installations surged 125% year-over-year, surpassing growth rates in Germany and Italy. With ongoing government support, India’s PV installations are projected to reach 1,000 megawatts in 2012, marking a 108.33% increase from 2011. Similarly, Japan’s PV installed capacity is expected to exceed 2,000 megawatts in 2012, growing by 66.67% compared to 2011. Behind this rapid expansion lies the persistent incentive of photovoltaic subsidies in emerging markets. For instance, Japan’s recent policy guarantees a 40 yen/kWh (approximately 0.38 euros) photovoltaic price for non-residential PV power plant projects over 20 years, significantly higher than the 0.2 euro/kWh subsidy in Europe. Such incentives promise a 20% return on investment for PV projects in Japan.