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First, real estate investment continues to decline, and the demand outlook is not optimistic. From January to October 2015, China's fixed asset investment accumulated 10.2% year-on-year, which was 0.1% lower than the growth rate in January-September, showing great downward pressure. Among them, the total amount of real estate development investment has increased by 2%, which is a sharp decline from the 12.4% in the same period of last year. The investment in the eastern and central regions has fallen across the board.
Secondly, the air-conditioner goes on stock, and the downturn is difficult to improve. In 2009-2013, the state has different levels of subsidies for the household air-conditioning industry, such as home appliances to the countryside, trade-in, energy-saving benefits subsidies, etc., directly stimulated air-conditioning consumption. Although the direct subsidy policy was withdrawn in 2014, the weather was hot throughout the year, driving air-conditioning shipments. In 2015, the air-conditioning industry was a cruel year. The demand was not strong throughout the year. Although the major air-conditioning plants started a price war, the price stimulus did not inject a catalyst into the air-conditioning market demand.
Third, the auto industry has bid farewell to high growth, and production and sales were flat in 2015. In 2015, the auto industry bid farewell to the high growth rate. The traditional automobile production and sales data showed a general performance: in the first half of the year, the vehicle sales only increased by 1.43%, and the output growth rate fell back to 2.64%, which was narrowed by nearly 7 percentage points year-on-year; The growth rate of the main business income of the dealers dropped significantly, and the gross profit also decreased accordingly. In July and August, the mainstream automakers and dealers jointly took the initiative to destock, making the August dealer inventory warning index drop for the first time since March. Up to 50%.
In short, in the process of economic transformation, China's economy has generally shown a downward trend, and the proportion of service industry has increased. It is negative for China's consumption demand for non-ferrous metals. The market expects that China will gradually change the original policy of steady investment growth, thus further The consumption of non-ferrous metals in China for some time will be bearish, and metal prices will continue to be weak.
Non-ferrous metal supply and demand pressure will further increase prices will continue to weaken
Abstract In terms of the terminal demand side of non-ferrous metals, its downstream consumption mainly covers three areas: real estate industry, air-conditioning manufacturing industry and automobile industry. The Financial Futures Institute pointed out that due to the overall trend of China's macro economy, the real estate, air conditioning, automotive and electric power industries...
In terms of the terminal demand side of non-ferrous metals, its downstream consumption mainly covers three areas: real estate industry, air-conditioning manufacturing industry, and automobile industry. The Financial Futures Institute pointed out that due to the overall trend of China's macro economy, the performance of real estate, air-conditioning, automobile and electric power industries was weak, which further increased the supply and demand pressure of non-ferrous metal varieties.