September 24, 2025

The current rebound in steel prices

The steel market has experienced a prolonged downward trend since the start of March, with domestic steel prices hitting new yearly lows. Market sentiment has been bleak, and traders have struggled with both inventory buildup and capital constraints. Despite some initial optimism at the beginning of the month, the market remained sluggish, with no significant improvement in demand. In response to weak demand, many merchants were forced to lower their prices to clear stock, which only deepened the pessimism in the sector. Meanwhile, financial markets continued to show weakness, with long-term capital flows like spirals and electronic disks also declining sharply. This further reinforced the bearish outlook among traders, leading to a loss of confidence in the steel market. End-users, too, became more cautious due to the ongoing price declines in the spot market, reducing their purchasing activity and contributing to stagnant transaction volumes. As of March 7, steel prices in Shanghai showed consistent declines: 8mm HRB400 plate was priced at 3,190 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous weekend; 6.5mm HRB300 high-line was at 3,170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; 20mm HRB400 rebar was at 3,110 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; hot-rolled coil (5.5*1500 HRC) was flat at 3,400 yuan/ton; and 1.0*1250 plate was at 4,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Since the Spring Festival, the steel market has seen a continuous decline, with prices falling consistently over time. Several factors have contributed to this situation. First, uncertain policy environments and weak demand have led to low trading volumes, making it difficult for prices to stabilize. Second, an oversupply of steel in the short term, combined with high inventory levels, has created a supply-demand imbalance, increasing market pressure. Third, the four-month price drop has fueled trader pessimism, resulting in panic selling. Lastly, credit issues in the national steel trade sector have worsened, putting immense financial strain on the industry and disrupting the capital chain. Looking ahead, the steel market is expected to see some stabilization in the coming week. As the end of the ** period approaches, market policies are becoming clearer, and downstream industries are starting to make plans for their annual operations. With warmer weather and the end of rainy seasons, end-user operating rates are gradually increasing, leading to a slight rise in purchase demand. Although prices are still falling overall, shipment volumes have improved compared to the previous period, and some areas have seen a small rebound in steel prices, indicating that demand is slowly warming up. Additionally, the government’s recent policy announcements have provided support for the steel market. Premier Li Keqiang’s 2014 government work report set a GDP growth target of 7.5%, signaling the government’s commitment to preventing a sharp economic slowdown. The planned fiscal deficit of 1.35 trillion yuan is expected to boost domestic consumption, while the development of social security housing and urbanization will increase steel demand. Moreover, the elimination of 27 million tons of outdated steel production capacity aims to reduce overcapacity and ease supply pressures in the market. Overall, as March progresses, there are signs of a slight recovery in market demand. With rising raw material prices, including billets, steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, marking a potential turning point for the market.

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