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China has entered the era of the “Belt and Road†of the whole country. As the latest national development strategy of a socialist country with a population of 1.3 billion, the world's second largest GDP, and the economic growth rate still ranked first in the world, it has inevitably become a worldwide topic.
We have found that in China, which is supposed to have the clearest situation, there are several phenomena on this issue: First, most of the discussions are unspeakable, and second, the ideological circles are in a dispute of left and right; and there has been a "One Belt One Road" 'It’s a basket, everything can be loaded inside.†This is a phenomenon we are already very familiar with. Under such circumstances, foreign public opinion is even more puzzled, and in a foreign environment, public opinion will inevitably affect people's psychology and government decision-making.
When we look back at the origin and development of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy in recent years, we find that the "Belt and Road" is really not a talk. It is a realistic choice of the Chinese government in the current internal and external environment.
"Belt and Road" originated from the discussion of academic circles
The “Belt and Road†strategy was originally derived from the “Westward Advance†strategic concept proposed by Wang Jiesi, Dean of Peking University's School of International Relations in the fall of 2012. It provided an early source of thought for the “Belt and Road†strategy.
This view clearly puts forward the most fundamental background of the "Westward Advance" strategy, namely: "The competition between China and the United States in East Asia has increasingly shown a certain 'zero-sum pattern'", so there needs to be some new and global The land strategy of land rights and sea power is “rebalancing†thinking. That is to say: China must vigorously "westward" while maintaining the "competition" between the East and the United States and Japan, and enter this non-key area of ​​China's diplomatic tradition. From the practice of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "Maritime Silk Road" jointly by the Chinese government today, and collectively referred to as the "Belt and Road" approach, we can see that Wang Jisi’s "land power and sea power are in parallel" Traces of opinion.
Wang Jisi also put forward the basis for his "Western Development" strategy for his "Westward Development" strategy, thus adding a new thinking path for him to open up the domestic market and promote domestic economic development. In the context of the economic downturn inside and outside, his views are undoubtedly very attractive to the government; in particular, he has raised his diplomatic strategy to the level of the main means of developing the domestic economy, which has made the meaning of the "westward" strategy Unprecedented sublimation.
However, Wang Jisi is not an economist after all. In his "Western Development" discussion, many of them still belong to the traditional political level, and the closeness with the current reality of the Chinese economy is not enough.
In particular, as a scholar, Wang Jisi can openly talk about the "zero-sum pattern" between China and the United States in the East Asian game. However, as the national strategy of the Chinese government, it cannot be said publicly because it is equivalent to openly enemies with the United States.
Also in 2012, scholar Lin Yifu suggested to the central government that China can learn from the US Marshall Plan's experience in capital export and resource purchase, acquire foreign resources, invest in foreign infrastructure, and export excess domestic production capacity with its strong foreign exchange reserves. The policy recommendations of Lin Yifu’s “Marshall Plan†have already made it clear. Wu Jinglian also raised the urgent troubles of China's economic reality. There is almost no way out by investing in domestic growth. Only by investing abroad can we avoid problems such as overcapacity, waste of resources, high housing prices, and local debts that are plaguing the current Chinese economy. Can increase foreign exchange reserves.
In addition, the two views of Singaporean scholar Zheng Yongnian, who is a native of Zhejiang, have also had a profound impact in China: First, the idea of ​​cultivating underdeveloped regions such as Central Asia into China's potential and future commodity and capital export markets. Zheng Yongnian believes that although China and other places are underdeveloped, China can also purchase Chinese products and borrow money from China by investing in this region, promoting local economic development and cultivating local markets into emerging markets. Another point of view is that Japan, Europe, and the United States have all entered the age of aging, while the underdeveloped areas of Central Asia, Iran, and Pakistan have a very young and underdeveloped population, and only they will consume Chinese products in large quantities. It is worth noting that Zhejiang Province is the place where Chinese President Xi Jinping once took power.
All of this has aroused the high attention of Liu He, the director of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group Office. Liu He himself has also been called “Xi Jinping’s Chief Financial Think Tankâ€.
Subsequently, the unsustainable growth of China's rapid economic growth has become increasingly evident, while in the east of China, the pressure on China from the United States and Japan has not weakened. The “Belt and Road†strategy then went to the stage.
Why did Xi Jinping personally
In September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan, proposing to jointly build the “Silk Road Economic Beltâ€, and gradually form regional cooperation from the line to the film.
On October 3, Xi Jinping delivered a speech in the Indonesian parliament, initiating China and Indonesia to jointly build the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. On the previous day, Xi was in the talks with Indonesian President Susino, and proposed to set up an AIIB. Infrastructure construction services in Asian countries including ASEAN. So far, China has publicly announced to the world the new development strategy of the “Belt and Roadâ€.
It is worth noting that China’s new national development strategy is largely economic expansion, not military, and to a certain extent temporarily difficult to be political. Therefore, compared with the “westward†strategy, The name "Silk Road" is a good concept for China. At the same time, this strategy has also begun to be dominated and led by Xi himself.
In fact, as early as the "Westward Advance" strategy was just put forward, European diplomats hinted to the author: The EU has established a "close strategic partnership" with the five Central Asian countries because "we cannot be subject to energy supply like Russia." Business." Therefore, China’s “westward†strategy and European “close strategic partnership†policies “clashâ€. At the same time, India still has reservations about the “Belt and Roadâ€. Their diplomats even told Modi with a smile before Moody’s visit to China: India may be “the only trouble with the Belt and Roadâ€.
At home, until today, there are still a few people in China's economic sector who doubt the investment and output efficiency of this strategy, especially the important tool for interconnection.
However, the strong leadership of the individual called “unprecedented†by the United States and the persistent pursuit of the “Chinese Dreamâ€, coupled with the urgent pressure of the reality of the Chinese economic situation, have made this strategy “conditional, no conditional creationâ€. The conditions must also be on the trend. At the same time, for the generation of Chinese who grew up in the Cultural Revolution for the past decade, Mao Zedong’s famous "China should make a greater contribution to mankind" and the education of Bethune’s internationalist spirit should be influential, it makes this generation In the youth subconscious, there is an "international consciousness."
Learning to do this should have his reason. In late May, there was no reference value on the Internet. This paragraph said: "President Xi’s secret order recently", through the "Belt and Road" to release China’s excess investment capacity abroad; to pass China’s hunger and thirst spending power The free trade zone has been absorbed into the country; the huge amount of money that has been blindly stalked by the Chinese people has been transferred to the entity (the economy) through the "stock market"; the foreign exchange reserves that have nowhere to go in China have been invested through the "AIIB" Go to the Allies; and guide enterprises that cannot adapt to the globally integrated competitive environment to guide the capital market.
2014 is a year in which Xi Jinping preached this strategy to the international community and implemented financial operations tools for this strategy.
On May 21st of that year, Xi was in a keynote speech at the Shanghai AsiaInfo Summit, which was called “Asian version of Monroe Doctrine†by foreign media. He pointed out that China will work with other countries to accelerate the “Silk Road Economic Belt†and “21 The construction of the Century Maritime Silk Road will start the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as soon as possible.
On November 8, 2014, at the dialogue on strengthening the interconnection partnership, Xi proposed the core content of the first step of the “Belt and Roadâ€, including: using transportation facilities as a breakthrough to prioritize the deployment of railway and highway projects in China with neighboring countries. To achieve connectivity in Asia.
In particular, China announced to the world that China will invest 40 billion U.S. dollars to establish the "Silk Road Fund"; and on October 24, two weeks ago, 21 AIIB intends to sign the AIIB "Memorandum of Construction" in Beijing. At the end of the year, the “Silk Road Fund†completed the industrial and commercial registration, and the two major financial instrument platforms of China’s “One Belt, One Road†strategy have been formed.
At the APEC summit held in November of that year, the inter-connected content was written into the two documents “APEC's Beijing Roadmap for Promoting the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area†and the “APEC Interconnection Blueprintâ€, which gave the “Belt and Road†The nature recognized by the international community.
In March 2015, the China Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the document “Promoting the Vision and Action of Building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Roadâ€, which called for the country to participate in the “Belt and Road†strategy. The document has made China enter the era of the “Belt and Roadâ€.
So at the central level, what institutions are currently implementing the “One Belt, One Road†concept?
On February 1 this year, the “Promoting 'One Belt and One Road' Construction Work Conference†was held in Beijing. Zhang Gaoli, Wang Huning, Wang Yang, Yang Jing and Yang Jiechi were seated on the podium of the meeting. This means that the leaders of the “Belt and Road†leadership team have already produce. In April, Ou Xiaoli, inspector of the Western Development and Reform Commission, and Zhang Yansheng, secretary general of the Academic Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, revealed at the briefing of senior diplomats and representatives of foreign companies in China that the four people were promoting the “Belt and Roadâ€: Politburo Zhang Gaoli, member of the Standing Committee and Executive Deputy Prime Minister, is the leader of the “Leading Group for the Construction of the Belt and Roadâ€. The deputy head is Wang Huning (Director of the Central Policy Research Office, Director of the Central Reform Office), Wang Yang (in charge of foreign trade), Yang Jing ( State Councilor, Secretary General of the State Council), Yang Jiechi (State Councilor, in charge of foreign affairs).
The position of these leaders means that the State Council is the main implementation and implementation unit for promoting the “Belt and Roadâ€.
Under this leading group, the ministries and commissions involved in promoting the construction of the “Belt and Road†are the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. However, the most important daily office of the leading group, namely: “Promoting the “Belt and Road†Construction Leading Group Officeâ€, is set up in the National Development and Reform Commission, and the deputy director of the 10th rank, Wang Xiaotao, assists the second-ranked deputy, Li Feng, in charge of “the areaâ€. All the way" work. He Lifeng was a member of the Standing Committee of the Provincial Party Committee of Fujian Province and the secretary of the Fuzhou Municipal Party Committee (deputy provincial and ministerial level) who was in charge of Xi Jinping. In 2009, he was transferred to the post of Tianjin Binhai New Area Working Committee and was in charge of the work of Binhai New Area. Later, he was the chairman of the Tianjin Political Consultative Conference. At the ministerial level, last year was transferred to the second director of the National Development and Reform Commission (the first deputy director is Liu He) and the deputy secretary of the party group. Therefore, the implementation of the “Belt and Road†is critical to the cadre's position in the “Belt and Road†strategy, whether it is cadre or institutional setup.
The three ministries and commissions jointly held the "Asia-Europe Interconnection Industry Dialogue" in Chongqing from May 27 to 28, and issued "Expanding Asia-Europe Infrastructure Construction" and "Promoting Regional Goods, Services, Capital and The Chongqing Initiative, where people move efficiently. Former Vice Minister of Commerce Wei Jianguo believes that this means that the “Belt and Road†has entered an accelerated implementation phase. But objectively speaking, the "dialogue" is mainly in propaganda and declaration.
In addition to the above-mentioned departments, there is also a department under the above-mentioned leading group, which actively participates in the related work of the “Belt and Roadâ€. This is the external liaison department of the CPC Central Committee that belongs to the Central Committee of the CPC. One of the reasons why the Ministry is active in promoting the “Belt and Road†is that at least the five Central Asian countries and Russia in important countries along the “Belt and Road†are former socialist countries, and diplomacy toward socialist countries. Including inter-party diplomacy for some European ruling parties, the ministry has always had a traditional advantage. Moreover, the current Minister of the International Department of the CPC Wang Jiarui also serves as the vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and belongs to the national leader sequence, which is one of the places different from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
At present, the China Central Liaison Department is mainly doing two things: First, since the beginning of last year, it has been planning to build a "One Belt, One Road" think tank, and based on this, to build a cooperative alliance. On April 8, the first "- The Belt and Road 'Thinking Bank Cooperation Alliance' was established. Ten days later, this alliance has 59 think tanks. The second is to solve the problem of “Belt and Road†to the outside world. In mid-April, the Ministry will send senior diplomats and foreign companies to China in one day. The representative in China made two interpretation sessions in a row. These are also aspects of propaganda and retreat.
The power of the national system is well known, especially in the direction of correctness and good cadres and coordination. So what is the current status of the “Belt and Road†operation under the current coordination? This is another issue that needs to be discussed.
(The author is a member of the China-Africa Development Exchange Association of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and has participated in research on related issues.)
What does China’s “Belt and Road†mean?
The abstract "What is the 'Belt and Road'? The concept is not clear." European diplomats told the author. China has entered the era of the “Belt and Road†of the whole country. And as...
"What is the 'Belt and Road'? The concept is not clear." European diplomats told the author.