Some coal prices rose by 5%

January 15 was the last day of the "Development and Reform Commission's determination to complete the signing of the 2013 contract for electric coal." However, many electric coal enterprises have not reached an agreement on the price of electric coal, and most of them are quantitative and non-pricing. The price of electric coal is still the focus of negotiations.

However, the final coal price determined by the coal companies represented by Luan Group, Datong Group, Shenhua Group, and China Coal Group was 5% higher than that of 2012.

Since this year is the period for the adaptation of the new coal mining mechanism, the game between the electric enterprise coal enterprises is normal. Coupled with the continuous decline in the price of thermal coal and the impact of imported coal, analysts expect that this year coal shipments will be signed or lower than last year. .

It is understood that, at present, the coal coal contract summary is still on schedule, as of January 15, the national coal production, transportation and demand convergence has been initially summarized 830.43 million tons.

The reporter learned from many home appliance companies and coal companies that at present, most of the electricity companies and coal companies are not pricing more.

In 2013, the first year of the cancellation of the coal price regulation and the commencement of coal marketization. Therefore, it is also destined that coal companies and power companies will have a difficult game and negotiations during the signing of this year's contract.

A group of electric power sources stated that Shenhua, China Coal and other coal companies and the Big Five Power Group reached an agreement on the 2013 Long Association, and the two parties agreed that the fixed pricing method proposed by the power group would abandon the floating price method previously proposed by coal companies. . Of course, the current disagreement between the two sides is that the two sides have inconsistent targets for the fixed price. The power group hopes to control the increase of RMB 20/ton compared with the key contract coal in 2012, while the coal companies hope that the increase will increase.

Looking at the current situation, the power group has a large amount of coal in stock and is in a position of relatively speaking power. Because the supply and demand situation of coal is relatively loose, there is no power to increase the price of coal, and coal enterprises are in a weak position in the negotiations.

Therefore, power groups have been unwilling to accept price increases from coal companies.

Yin Xilong, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, believes that due to the suppression of the release of Shanxi's integrated mining capacity in the first half of 2013, the strength of the economic recovery is still uncertain. It is expected that the average spot coal price in 2013 will be significantly lower than that in 2012, and the coal companies will focus on 2013 key contracts. The demand for price increases will be more strongly resisted by downstream companies, especially power companies.

Treasure Island analyst Dai Bing told the Securities Daily reporter that at present, the price of coal-based coal and long-term thermal coal is based on the price of the Bohai-sea thermal coal, which is based on the price of RMB10 to RMB20. Etc. The prices of coal mines and long associations of Zhao'an Group, Datong Group, Shenhua Group and China Coal Group rose by approximately 5%.

At present, most of the parties are quantifying and not pricing, and most of the coal prices have not yet been announced. After January 18th, prices will be announced in succession.

"If both parties have been controversial about the price, the power companies can choose not to sign, and later they can buy coal at the market coal price and follow the market." Li Ting, an analyst at the China Business Center Productivity Promotion Center, said that, in terms of capacity, the market coal has no contract coal. Guaranteed.

On January 16, the latest average price of thermal coal in the 5,500-kilocal calorific market in the Bohai Rim region closed at 633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous period.

Business Community Energy Branch Coal analyst Xinyu Yu told Securities Daily that the main body of thermal coal was weak and the price of coal in the Bohai Sea continued to drop slightly. Mainly due to the increase of imported coal to the domestic trade coal caused some pressure, it is still relatively high inventory of ports and power plants is difficult to support downstream coal demand.

After the coal price coalesce, the disagreement between coal enterprises and power companies for the annual or mid- and long-term coal price contracts in 2013 is quite obvious. The uncertainty in the outcome of the “game” between the two sides has prompted the cautious market sentiment to heat up, and the supply and demand of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has increased. Continue to slump.

Xinyu Xin believes that at present, it is precisely the time for the new coal-fired coal mining mechanism to adapt, which makes traders still adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The short-term downstream purchase enthusiasm is weak, and the downward trend of thermal coal may be difficult to reverse in the short term.

At the same time, the continuous increase in imported coal also has a certain impact on the domestic coal market.

According to the latest data provided by the China Customs' deployment, China's cumulative import of coal in 2012 was 290 million tons, an increase of 107.6 million tons compared with 2011, an increase of 59% year-on-year. With the realization of shale gas, the coal consumption of the United States in the world’s second-largest coal-producing country continues to decline, resulting in a surge in exports.

Peng Jingang, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that at present, the international economy is still sluggish and the demand for energy is still poor. It is expected that in the next few years, China's imported coal will still operate at a high level and prices will remain low, thus hitting the domestic market.

Affected by the above factors, in the signing of the coal power contract this year, power companies have relatively high bargaining power, and coal enterprises are relatively weak.

"This year's signed coal consumption will be lower than last year, or be equal." Dai Bing predicts that the southern coastal power plant may leave some space for the use of imported coal, and imported coal has advantages.

He believes that the international economic situation is still sluggish, and there are certain advantages in the price of imported thermal coal compared with domestic ones, and there is no issue of fulfillment rate.