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With the recent convening of the Central Economic Work Conference, the market has once again heated up the attention to the international and domestic economic and social development situation and policy orientation in 2012. At the GF Securities 2012 Investment Strategy Report held in Shenzhen yesterday, Chen Dongqi, a well-known economist and vice president of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, looked forward to the future economic development trend and policy orientation. He believes that the first quarter and the first half of next year The CPI will continue to maintain a supernormal decline, GDP growth will fall back to the 8%-9% range, and the economy is expected to have an upward turning point in the third quarter of next year. [Talk about the economy] The economy will continue to decline. The CPI will fall sharply. For the future economic trend, Chen Dongqi believes that China's economic growth will decline in 2012. The more optimistic is the decline in the first half of next year, the turning point in the second half of the year, and the more pessimistic year-round decline. At the same time, he believes that the world will continue this downward trend, but the situation in the United States may change a bit. Chen Dongqi judged that under the influence of the economic downturn in Europe and the United States and the domestic policy environment, the fixed assets investment in 2012 will have a “double dip†situation, and exports will experience negative growth, while the actual consumption demand growth of residents will gradually slow down, and GDP growth will Falling back to the 8%-9% range, while the slowdown in aggregate demand growth will lead to a continued decline in CPI. Chen Dongqi said that with the control of the scale of money supply, the future CPI must be greatly reduced. It is now predicted that the CPI in the first quarter of next year or even the first half of the year may be abnormally reduced. Although it is judged that the economy will go down next year, Chen Dongqi said that there is no need to worry too much about the economic downturn. He believes that the appropriate economic downturn will have certain benefits, which are embodied in four aspects: First, the risks of inflation risks and asset bubbles are shrinking, and the government has more energy to do other things. Second, it will reduce the cost of growth. Third, there will be more time for reform, innovation, transformation and upgrading, etc. Fourth, it will help China's economic growth to develop into a long-term balanced medium-speed growth era. [Talk about policy] Active fiscal policy to increase tax reduction Although the problem of local fiscal deficit has begun to appear this year, Chen Dongqi judged that fiscal policy will continue to be positive in the next year. Chen Dongqi believes that the dependence of China's economy on investment is still very obvious, especially in the low tide of the economy. It is even more important to promote the economy through investment. He pointed out that China's infrastructure investment will continue to grow moderately next year, including transportation, water conservancy, urban infrastructure, and the construction of some people-centered social security infrastructure. He said that the so-called positive fiscal policy, in addition to the support of increased public investment and fiscal expenditure, is also reflected in increasing the income of the people, for example, in structural tax cuts, increasing subsidies for low-income groups, while reducing innovation. There should be some movements in the taxes and fees of small and micro enterprises, and the structural tax reduction will be even stronger next year. [Talk about investment] The stock market in the second quarter of next year or see the bottom yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets once again hit a new low in the recent rebound. Chen Dongqi said that this is a normal reflection of the stock market's poor economic prospects next year. He pointed out that the stock market ushered in the policy in October this year. At the end, but the market will lag behind, he judged that the stock market is likely to bottom out in April to May next year. "The stock market will bottom out before the economy, but before the rise of the wave, it will obviously squat." For the previous session of the renminbi, which hit the daily limit, Chen Dongqi said that he was wary of the international capital outflow. He pointed out that the cumulative increase of RMB unilateral appreciation for 27% for six and a half years was excessively suspected; at the same time, international speculative capital was withdrawn from China, shorting China and singing China. "This phenomenon will last for a long time and will impact the domestic economy and the domestic market. You can't wait for it, you need to take countermeasures."