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Leverage the macro economy to improve the supernormal development of Dongfeng superhard materials industry
——Analysis of the economic operation of superhard materials industry in 2010 2011 China (Zhengzhou) International Abrasives Grinding Technology Development Forum Superhard Materials Superhard Materials Forum Opening Report Li Zhihong, Zhao Bo China Machine Tool Industry Association Superhard Materials Branch / Zhengzhou Abrasives Grinding Research Institute, Zhengzhou 450001, China Abstract: Based on the 2010 statistics, this paper proves the supernormal development of the industry by comparing the macroeconomic data of national GDP and import and export with the main economic indicators of the superhard materials industry. The total industrial output value growth rate was as high as 30.35%, the industrial added value growth rate was as high as 53.36%, and the total profit growth rate was 115.42%. Such rapid development still can not meet the market demand, all kinds of product manufacturers are basically full of orders, delivery is urgent, a party is thriving, and structural adjustment has achieved remarkable results. This paper gives 18 statistical data sheets and analyzes their data. On the one hand, it shows the strong position of China's superhard materials industry in the world market. Diamond has accounted for 90% of the world total, and cubic boron nitride has occupied the world. 60% of the total, the two materials have reached or approached the world's advanced level; on the other hand, it is pointed out that the large amount of such products in China is low, high and low is a prominent feature, indicating that the restructuring of the industry still has a long way to go, technology development is The eternal theme of corporate development. In response to the economic crisis triggered by the world financial crisis in 2008, the central government issued and implemented an economic stimulus plan with an investment of 4 trillion yuan. The plan played a major role in 2010, which not only reversed the significant decline in economic growth rate and the sharp decline in imports and exports. The situation has also achieved the rapid development of the national economy. In 2010, GDP reached 39.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% (calculated at current prices), an increase of 8 percentage points; industrial added value reached 16 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.5% (at current prices), an increase of 4.7 Percentage; from January to November 2010, the profit was 3.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%, an increase of 41.6 percentage points; the total import and export volume reached 2.97 trillion US dollars, an increase of 34.7%, an increase of 48.6 percentage points. See Table 1 for details. These data can reflect the power of the national economic stimulus plan and the fact that the macro economy is good. Table 1. Macroeconomic data such as national GDP and import and export. The superhard materials industry is in line with the national economic development trend. In 2010, the situation improved sharply, and the growth returned to a high level. The long-lost orders were full, and the demand for products was in short supply. The growth rate was unexpected. High, more than double the national economic growth, showing an extraordinary development momentum. In the meantime, it has overcome many unfavorable factors such as energy, raw materials and labor costs, and the product profit has more than doubled. Please refer to the following statistics and analysis for details. In 2010, the economic situation of the super-hard materials industry rebounded strongly, the growth rate returned to a high level, labor productivity increased substantially, and structural adjustment results were remarkable. It can be seen from Table 2 that the total industrial output value of the 63 enterprises reached 8.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 30.35%, which is nearly 14 percentage points higher than the growth rate of 16.7% of the national GDP; the industrial added value of 43 enterprises reached 317,700 yuan. The growth rate is as high as 53.36%, which is nearly 35 percentage points higher than the country's 18.5% growth rate; 69 companies have a total profit of 1.21 billion yuan, a growth rate of 115.42%, 66 percentage points higher than the national 1-11% profit growth rate of 49.4%. . The average wage of 68 enterprise workers rose by 19.86%, which was nearly 17 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the consumer price index of 3.3%. Table 2 Main economic indicators of the industry in 2010 * The growth rate of the previous year is the growth rate calculated according to the statistics of 2009, which is not completely consistent with the enterprises in 2010, so the data is not completely comparable and is for reference only. These data fully demonstrate that the industry's economic rebound is high, and the industrial added value and profit growth rate are 23 and 85 percentage points higher than the industrial output value growth rate respectively. The industrial value added and profit per unit of output value are higher, and high value-added products. The proportion has increased significantly, indicating that the product structure adjustment results are significant. Industry employees have enjoyed the benefits of economic development and product structure adjustment, and wage income has been greatly improved. The above is a good economic situation reflected by the statistics. So what is the market reaction? As we all know, in 2010, there were all-round demand for bulk commodities (such as diamonds, saw blades, grinding wheels, etc.). All kinds of enterprises were full of orders, and every day they distributed goods in an emergency way, especially diamond single crystals. Even the special equipment manufacturers have emerged from the product. Users find relationships in different ways. Today, the super-hard materials industry has formed a huge industry and production capacity, and this phenomenon still occurs, indicating that the industry development is supernormal. We can also see this from the specific product statistics below. 2. The output of major products has soared, and it is still difficult to meet market demand. Table 3. Statistical calculation data of diamond cubic boron nitride in 2010*: Small enterprises with more than 20 new students specialize in producing diamonds for building materials grinding with a production capacity of about 1.5 billion carats* *: The average price of diamonds for grinding of 1.5 billion carats of building materials can be seen from Table 3. As the two basic materials of the superhard material industry, it shows a jumping development. Diamond production reached a record high of 9.2 billion carats, and the growth rate was as high as 62%. That is to say, it is still difficult to meet the market demand. The orders of various production enterprises are full, and the materials used by major users are in a hurry. Moreover, the unit price has also risen by 8.6% due to tight supply (except for the newly-applied 1.5 billion carats of the lowest-priced diamond for building materials grinding in 2010, if this part is included, the price is flat), which is rare in the history of industry development. Since the birth of diamonds, it has been a price cut. There are three reasons for the analysis of this situation: First, the low price of diamonds has promoted the use of large-scale replacement of high-energy, resource-based and heavily polluted silicon carbide grinding blocks for building materials (floor tiles and stone). Cutting, greatly expanding the application of diamonds, and second, high-efficiency, low-carbon, environmentally friendly diamond tools are increasingly being used in large-scale projects such as the booming houses, high-speed rail, and South-to-North Water Transfer. Third, China’s diamond production has been cheap. It accounts for 90% of the world's total production and is accepted by more and more international merchants. The international market is expanding rapidly and the export volume has increased substantially. Although the growth of cubic boron nitride is not as high as that of diamonds, its growth rate is as high as 24%, and its output has accounted for 60% of the world's total output. Its main driving force is the expansion of its application fields, the expansion of the market caused by the transfer of manufacturing to China, and the increase in exports caused by the improvement of quality. Table 4. Statistical data of four types of products in 2010 Table 4 is the statistical data of four main types of super-hard materials in 2010. Although the number of enterprises counted is small, it cannot represent the overall data of the industry, but the enterprises that are counted are all product areas. The top companies are the top ones, and the trends they represent should be consistent with the industry as a whole. From the data in the table, we can see that all four types of products are growing at a high speed, with a growth rate of 18 to 43%. The lowest growth rate is saw blade, and the highest growth rate is diamond grinding wheel. The unit price of CBN grinding wheels with the highest value per piece has increased by 12%. Although its proportion is not large (about 10% by amount), it also reflects the increase in the proportion of high value-added goods. The unit price of the other three types of products is still decreasing. Like diamond and cubic boron nitride, the production of various types of products is also prosperous and prosperous. Table 5 is the statistics of the import and export of China Customs 2010 diamond and grinding wheel products. This is the only product number of the superhard materials industry in the customs. Most products do not have the corresponding product numbers and cannot be statistically analyzed. As can be seen from Table 5, the total import and export of the two commodities is 280 million US dollars, of which exports are nearly 171 million US dollars, imports are more than 109 million US dollars, and the surplus is 62 million US dollars. The export of both commodities reached a record high, with diamond exports amounting to nearly 2.2 billion carats and grinding wheel products exporting nearly 15,000 tons. However, the growth in imports of both commodities was stronger than the increase in exports. The growth rate of diamond imports is 16 percentage points higher than that of exports. The ratio of import and export price is 3.3:1; the import growth rate of grinding wheel products is nearly 70% higher than that of exports! The unit price ratio of import and export is 22.3:1, how big the difference is! This shows that the domestic and international markets of the two commodities have rebounded strongly. The high-end users at home and abroad are still occupied by developed countries. The situation of high-input and low-level has not been effectively improved. The restructuring of the industry still has a long way to go. The author has repeatedly written an article calling for: China's diamonds have reached the world's advanced level, but there is no such thing as the sales price in the international market. Why can't we produce more high-end products (we fully have this level), which meets the needs of domestic high-end market? Can occupy the international market? Entrepreneurs must adjust their development thinking to change this ratio. 2010 Table 5. China Customs and diamond products (grinding wheel class) of June 2010, the largest market for import and export statistics table of diamond export destination countries and regions, accounting for 31% of total exports. There are three countries and regions that account for more than 10% of exports: the United States, Hong Kong and India, accounting for 61.7% of the total; the countries with more than 5% of exports plus South Africa, South Korea and Japan, and the six regions share exports. 81.2% of the volume, other destinations are distributed in 53 countries. These six places are the main consumption places for diamonds in China, and the average unit price of diamonds consumed in South Africa, South Korea and Japan is slightly higher. Table 7 shows the export destinations of China's diamond wheel products in 2010. According to the table, the export destinations of grinding wheel products are much more dispersed than diamonds, and there are also three countries that account for more than 10% of export volume: Poland, India and the Netherlands. The three places accounted for 38.1% of the total. Countries with more than 5% of exports plus Iran and Malaysia, the five countries accounted for 53.6% of the total exports, and the other 46.4% of the products are exported to 120 countries and regions. Table 7 In 2010 , China's diamond grinding wheel products export destination countries in the major countries and regions of China's diamond exports given in Table 6, we can only find the first US, second Hong Kong and sixth Japan diamond imports Relevant data are listed separately to readers. 4.1 US diamond import market Table 8 gives the statistics of the US diamond import market. It can be seen that the United States imported nearly 600 million carats of diamonds in 2010, and China reached 460 million carats, accounting for 77.6% of its total imports. More than two; Ireland's second place is less than 0.7 billion carats, accounting for 11.2% of the market; the third place in South Korea is only 0.2 billion carats, accounting for 3.8% of the market. These three countries are the main competitors in the United States and even the international market, accounting for 92.6% of the total US imports. China’s products dominate, and the market share has risen year after year and will continue to rise (from 14.1% in 2000 to 2010). 77.6%). The market share of the main competitor, Ireland, is declining year by year (from 48.8% in 2000 to 11.2% in 2010), and the market share in South Korea is basically stable at a low level (3.8% in both 2000 and 2010). It is not difficult to see the strong development of China's diamond in the US market. However, from the perspective of sales unit price, China's lowest level, Ireland and South Korea sales unit price is 5.5 times and 4.1 times of China's, respectively, which shows that China's exports of diamonds in the United States in the middle and low-end products is huge, the number of high-end products is small. Table 8 US imported diamond statistics in 2010 From the statistical data of the US diamond import market segments in Tables 9-11, the metal-plated diamonds in China almost completely occupy the US market, accounting for 97.5%, and there is no real competitor. 80 mesh fine uncoated diamonds China almost dominated the US market, accounting for 88.3%, the main competitor Ireland only 8.1%; 80 mesh with coarse coating diamond China is the United States' main supplier, accounting for 72.4% The main competitors Ireland and South Korea accounted for 13.3% and 5.3% respectively. The information given in the table is also: China's diamond unit price is the lowest among all countries, and the proportion of China's share decreases with the increase of diamond grade. Table 9. 2010 US Diamond Imported Metallized Diamond Market Data Sheet 10. 2010 US Diamond Imported 80 mesh Fine Uncoated Diamond Market Data Sheet 11. 2010 US Diamond Imported 80 mesh with coarse uncoated diamond market data 4.2 Japanese Diamond Import Market Table 12 shows the statistics of imported diamonds in Japan in 2010. It can be seen that the main competitors in the Japanese market are China, Ireland, the United States and South Korea, and the market share (by volume) is 48.6% and 22.3%, respectively. 17.5% and 5.6%, the total of the four countries accounted for 94%. In terms of import value, the rankings are Ireland (40.0%), the United States (26.2%), China (14.7%) and South Korea (8.4%). China has the largest amount of products and the lowest price. The unit price of competitors is 6 times, 5 times and 4.8 times that of our products. Entrepreneurs must work hard to change the pattern. Table 12. Japan's Imported Diamond Statistics in 2010 4.3 Hong Kong's 2010 Import and Export Industrial Diamond and Abrasive Products Market Comparison Tables 13 and 14 show that: 1) Hong Kong imported 448 million carats of industrial diamonds in 2010, exporting 591 million carats, indicating that Hong Kong is Diamond's re-export trade zone, where local diamonds are not consumed. 2). With the improvement of the international market, not only sold all the imported goods in 2010 but also sold the stocks in 2009. Comparing Tables 15 and 16 can also reach the same conclusion, importing 195 million Hong Kong dollars of diamonds, exporting 2.61 100 million Hong Kong dollars diamond. Note that Table 13 and Table 15, Table 14, and Table 16, respectively, represent diamonds under different article numbers. 3). Hong Kong sells medium and low-end Continental diamonds with a unit price of 0.47HKD/ct to all parts of the world (total value of HK$219 million), and sells world-grade diamonds with a medium-to-high price of 1.09HKD/ct to the mainland (total value of HK$204 million) ). Table 13. Hong Kong's 2010 Import of Industrial Diamonds 1 Table 14. Hong Kong's 2010 Export of Industrial Diamonds 1 Table 15. Hong Kong's 2010 Import of Industrial Diamonds 2 Table 16. Hong Kong's 2010 Export of Industrial Diamonds 2 Comparison Tables 17 and 18 show: 1). In 2010, Hong Kong imported 31.2 tons of diamond grinding wheel products and exported 20.9 tons. One-third of the goods were not exported, indicating that the local re-export trade zone of such commodities also consumes such commodities. 2). Hong Kong mainly imports the goods from Japan. Japan accounts for 79.3% of the total imports, followed by South Korea and the mainland, accounting for only 4.8% and 3.9%. 3). The mainland and Japan are the main export destinations for such goods, accounting for 47.5% and 27.3% respectively, and the unit price of 2268HKD/kg exported to the mainland is 11.5 times that of Japan's 197 HKD/kg. It is self-evident. Table 17. Hong Kong imported diamond grinding wheel products in 2010 Table 18. Hong Kong exports of diamond grinding wheel products in 2010 1). Although the growth rate of superhard materials industry has been much higher than the national GDP growth rate for many years and will continue to be so in the future, but for the macro The economic dependence is very high, especially for specific areas such as housing, construction, large-scale engineering, and manufacturing. Therefore, we must pay attention to and study macroeconomic trends, especially in the country’s macroeconomic adjustment, and the effects are gradually emerging. During the period, it is necessary to adjust the development strategy in a timely manner. 2). The industry market continued the hot situation in 2010 in the first half of 2011. The product orders were full, and the delivery was slightly relieved (the output was rapidly expanding), but it must not be “the radish is not washedâ€, to ensure product quality. . 3). In the super-normal high-speed development, we should not only be busy dealing with production and sales, technology development must not be relaxed, and when the economic development slows down, it is often the technology-leading enterprise that can still maintain a good development. Technology development is the eternal theme of enterprise development. 4). Although the industrial structure adjustment has achieved certain results, my industry products are still characterized by high input and low output, import growth is greater than export growth, and large quantity and low price are prominent features, indicating that structural adjustment has a long way to go! 5). Super-hard materials have reached or approached the world's advanced level, but all kinds of super-hard materials are backward, but super-hard materials are subdivided according to the purpose but there is no good for all kinds of products. China has accounted for 90% of the world's diamond production and 60% of cubic boron nitride production. Such a strong strength does not subdivide the brand, can not guide and guide users to use the material, is this not one of the main reasons for not selling the price? ? 6. Concluding remarks The stimulus plan is fascinating, and the macro economy is taking off. The super-hard industry is particularly hot, and the strong development is amazing. Whether it is still the case in the coming year, the ambitions should be more troublesome. In the year of the year, it is difficult to think hard, and development and upgrade should be kept in mind!