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Yi Fuxian, a scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said Chinese officials overestimated nearly 90 million births between 1990 and 2016.
Yi Fuxian attributed this error he said to the excessively optimistic fertility figures. In 2015, China's fertility rate was estimated at 1.6, while Yi Fuxian believed that it might actually be as low as 1.05.
If Yi Fuxian’s statement is correct, China’s population was 1.29 billion at the end of last year, and the government’s official figure was 1.38 billion. In contrast, the Indian government’s estimate of its population is 1.33 billion.
Yi Fuxian presented this research to the academic community in Beijing this week, highlighting the demographic crisis faced by Chinese policy makers. In 2012, China’s working-age population fell for the first time and has been declining since then, which has led to the possibility that China’s “not getting rich firstâ€.
Yi Fuxian told the Financial Times: "I have not studied the population figures of India. But the Indian population will not exceed China, and will soon surpass it, and will eventually have much more than the Chinese population."
In the book "Big Country with an Empty Nest" published in 2007, Yi Fuxian proposed that the "Malthusian fear" of the CCP planners is unfounded.
Most Chinese officials and scholars now admit that the one-child policy has accelerated the arrival of China's "Lewis Turning Point". This inflection point theory was put forward by the economist Arthur Lewis in 1954. It refers to the moment when the rural surplus labor in a country is exhausted and the wage level begins to rise rapidly. After this turning point, it will be difficult for China to achieve the productivity gains that have been easily achieved in the past quarter century.
Yi Fuxian believes that if there is no one-child policy, the Chinese population would have begun to decline after reaching a peak of 1.6 billion in 2040, thus allowing the world's second-largest economy to enjoy a much longer “demographic dividendâ€.
For some ethnic minorities and rural families whose first child is a girl, there is an exception to the one-child policy, but most Chinese families have only been allowed to have one child in the past. Two years ago, the policy was amended to allow families to have two children.
Scholars say that the population of China has been exceeded by India: the number of births is overestimated by 90 million
Summary According to an independent Chinese demographers say, India or China become more than the world's most populous country. Yi Fuxian, a scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison...
According to an independent Chinese demographer, India has surpassed China to become the world's most populous country.